What I have learnt about MMT So far.

MMT in a Nutshell

The main argument of this theory is that the Central Bank and the Government are not like a household or a company, but they are where the money comes from. Therefore, the primary balance of a government is no longer a problem in this theory.

I also wrote about MMT here. "WHAT is MMT(Modern Monetary Theory)? Q and A session."

The relation between the conventional theory and MMT.

In conventional theory, People pay taxes before the government spends money.

On the other hand, in the MMT theory, the government spends money before people pay taxes, and collecting taxes is only to prevent inflation.

MMT is some form of a combination of conventional theories but what it sees is opposite to what the traditional approach does.

In Keynesian economics, more government spending is considered an excellent stimulus to the economy. And in Trickle-down economics, it attempted to enhance its economy by spending money on rich people regarded as Job-creators.

Two of the theories above are partially combined in MMT. Instead of only rich people, the government spends printed money on general or targeted people who can increase the demand with cash because MMT assumes that the demand is the best job creator.

The feasibility and problems

The Former Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States, Alan Greenspan, said, “there is nothing to prevent the Federal Government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody”.

So, the government can print much money for people. The problem is whether there is enough product in the system that supplies to meet the demand caused by distributing capital to people. If there isn’t, inflation appears based on the fundamental law of supply and demand. However, MMT can handle this problem by taxation to regulate the need.

So, in theory, there seems to be no problem in applying MMT to the actual economy!

The real problem behind this.

I think MMTer overlooks something.

First, MMT is basically to maximize the productivity of the economy, which means if it is executed as the following monetary policy, it will cause to worsen the pollution and exploitation of resources on the planet. It does not seem like a perfect plan in terms of preserving our environment.

In the future, however, if the system is filled up with green energy and a sustainable economy, MMT can kick in without any considerable problems. Therefore, the conclusion is that MMT is the future standard, probably the following ideology after Capitalism.

Asset magagement?

I’ve been predicting the market so far, and my anticipation is pretty good from a short/middle-term perspective.

Prediction, however, is not as important as the timing of taking the position and asset management.

The term asset management is broad and vague. Asset management is to protect your Capital by any means necessary. But precisely, how?

1.       Use stop order all the time

One of the problems of using stop orders every time is that you probably will experience the moment several times when the price hits the stop order before it goes in the direction you expected. That is not the fault of the stop order but yours. You perhaps should wait for the opportunity more patiently and consider the timing of taking the position more carefully.

2.       Resort to risk/reward ratio approach

Just limit your loss with a stop order while do not touch a position making profit but gradually raising the stop order to let the position make money while limiting risk. The method is supposed to be stricter, but I think this is the simplest way to imitate the essence of what pros are doing with the risk/reward approach. This approach theoretically might work. 

What to invest next?

Nothing to invest on

Gold had been the best option for investment, but it is no longer the case because The financial market raised its price too much. The stock market has been stagnant and possibly in a bubble state. Government bonds are likely to be in the bubble because the whole economy is generally based on low-interest rates. Government bonds and Treasury might be the last hope for most investors to make enough profit safely. 

Waiting might be the answer.

Theoretically, I have no idea what to do at the moment.

If you are an aggressive investor, the possible solution would be investing in Bitcoin extremely defensively or taking a short position in the Japanese stock market or buying an inverse ETF on the Stock market. It, however, might be the best option to wait for the next opportunity, such as the following depression, as Warren Buffett would do. 

A financial panic seems inevitable

 When I look at the whole picture of the economy, it is easy to be obsessed with the idea that a financial panic is incoming. What am I exactly seeing? The reflection of truths or a nonsensical illusion?

Followings are the potential pieces of evidence for incoming depression.

・The price hike of the Gold.

              The price hike of Gold indicates that investors are thinking either that inflation is coming or that a decline in stock prices is coming. One can easily anticipate The coming inflation because of the monetary easing policy that central banks worldwide are doing. What is more, Financial stagnancy or depression appears to be likely sooner or later. Therefore, I have insisted that Gold is a good option for investment. I wrote about this here.  "Gold investment June 2019" and here "About Gold and Theory Behind it" 

・Too many debts around the corner. The amount of them is more than the level of that in 2007.

              It is OK because capitalism works by boosting the economy by creating many debts. However, when people start being unable to pay the money back, we will likely face an economic disaster again.

・Unsustainable Monetary policy has mainly been executed by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.

              The Bank of Japan, for example, is printing money like crazy and buying a lot of Japanese Government Bonds and ETFs related to Nikkei 225 and other Japanese index funds. At least the Japanese economy is supported partly by The Bank of Japan. The Bank, however, will have to stop what it is doing at some point because printing an infinite amount of money theoretically leads to making currency pieces of paper, and The Bank of Japan buying a lot of Japanese ETFs and government bonds seems something is wrong. *Counter argument, MMT is here to refute traditional people like me. Written in "What is MMT(Modern Monetary Theory. Q and A session" 

We have still hope

I really hope that the 4th industrial revolution will help us out.  

Bitcoin investment

Bitcoin is supposed to be a good investment option, but people around it are devastating it. Bitcoin is, I assume, traded mainly amongst those who are emotional and empty-headed. Sometimes, the stock market is emotional, but the Bitcoin market is more effortlessly heated and frozen anytime. How do you make a profit from there? You should probably be rational and fill your brain with your thoughts.

First, limit your amount of money for

investment in Bitcoin because the market's volatility is pretty much insane,

and nobody can predict the short-term price shift of the Bitcoin market. What is more, if you invest money in Bitcoin, you will be most likely to be

one of them because you may become emotional.

Second, dollar cost averaging would be a

great approach for Bitcoin because, in the short-term perspective, the price movement is unpredictable. The Bitcoin market tends to follow the long-term trend like other markets like stocks and commodities. The averaging would mitigate the risk caused by the vast volatility and help you make a profit if you

are right about following the long-term trend.

Depression is coming

Recently the intense discussion over the existence of coming depression has been ongoing in my head. I have seriously been trying to defeat a person inside of my brain who argues that an economic crash is incoming. I had to dispute the guy because of the following reasons. 1. All the governments and central banks are willing to stop depression from happening at all costs. 2. The massive economic collapse happened in 2008, just 11 years ago. In case you do not know, what happened in 2008 was said to be a once-in-a-century incident. Why would you think this kind of disaster would happen again with such a short interval.

However, I became pretty sure that we perhaps will experience a recession and possibly depression. Based on what has been happening within the latest three days, I am saying this.

The stock market in Japan was hyped by the announcement The European Central Bank made, which was pretty nice, but the problem is that the Japanese market does not have the power to increase its value. Considering this, I am now pretty sure that soon we will face a large depression, and from now on, I regard a future increase in Stock prices as a bubble.

WHAT is MMT(Modern Monetary Theory)? Q and A session.

Quick Introduction

I have had a headache researching this term, MMT, but it is worth learning because This theory, and probably the 4th industrial revolution, might be saviours of this extreme stagnant economy.

Putting the 4th industrial revolution aside, this theory, MMT, will become very important in the next few years, and this theory may become the future standard when one country wants to get out economically from prolonged stagnancy.

What is MMT in one word?

It says it is OK for governments to expand their expenditure without considering their Primary balance, especially when it has a destructive deflationary spiral.

What is that policy for?

This policy is for trying to maximize and

reach the physical limit of production to get out of the stagnant economy with

deflation.

MMT causes Crowding out. Will it be a problem?

First, the term, Crowding out is; If the government issues plenty of its bonds for its expenditure, the abundance of the bonds leads to a decline in Bond prices which also necessarily causes an increase in interest rates. This naturally affects interest rates to become higher in the private sector, which means it becomes harder for people to use money more than they have. Simply, it becomes harder for people to make a loan. That is crowding out when the government can spend money on whatever it likes while citizens become unable to spend money without heavy restrictions or higher interest rates.

It, however, will not necessarily be a problem because if a government has a deficit, that means someone is in surplus. Therefore, the government spending money to expand its debt means that it also is

making someone’s surplus bigger. MMT is helping the private sector rather than causing crowding out.

In conclusion, it causes crowding out, but it also systematically has an automatic countermeasure. Therefore, it will not be a huge problem.

MMT will lead to hyperinflation. Have you forgotten the burning hot inflations in European countries after World War I?

MMT would say no, it does not cause hyperinflation because MMT is forming a pair with the method of preventing inflation. The technique is mainly raising the tax rate.

Further questions I have and have yet to be answered.

・causing to some extent of inflation and raising

the tax rate at the same time sounds ridiculous to me because inflation itself seems to be a form of taxation for specific people.

The point I should consider in this question,

1. is inflation a form of taxation? 2. Maybe inflation has several types: one caused by printing money, healthy inflation, and unhealthy inflation.

Although I feel a little bit suspicious about MMT, perhaps considering MMT is essential, especially in the current economic situation here, because it might be a breakthrough in this financial situation. Therefore, I will discuss MMT in the following articles as well. Thank you very much.

What about Bitcoin?

It is an excellent option to try to invest in Bitcoin because generally, Newspapers, governments and people in the economic fields regard Bitcoin as One of the financial entities which have a right to exist as an investment option. In contrast, people, in general, are still scared of Bitcoin like a devil generates it.

This would be an excellent option if you can fully concentrate on preserving your capital and investing in Bitcoin exceptionally defensively.

About other cryptocurrencies(Altcoins)? No.

Please educate yourself about Cryptocurrency before investing in Altcoins until you can say Yes to this question.

I just realized the potential of Japanese Government Bond in this economically depressed situation.

This morning, I have gotten some ideas from the information centre above the sky.

I have been participating in ETF of U.S. Treasury Bond and Bonds from European countries. Despite the theory that bonds go up when the stock market doesn't go well, they have dropped along with stock prices. I have wondered why it happened, but finally, I have reached a plausible hypothesis; they probably are highly influenced by the foreign exchange market.

I have considered the Japanese Government Bond as nothing but a stupid investment option. However, if you think the hypothesis I newly came up with this morning and assume that the price of the Yen will increase in an economic crisis (it is historically proven that investors bought the Yen before and after the 2008 crisis), the Japanese Government Bond is an excellent option for preparing the subsequent depression.

That also explains why the interest rate of Japanese bonds is meagre because investors worldwide realized this feature long before I came up with this somehow and bought a lot of them.

If you think economic depression will happen, a Japanese Government Bond would be an excellent investment option.

What are they doing?

Thanks to the European Central Bank saying she is willing to execute further monetary easing policy, the global economy seems temporarily recovered from its short-term stagnancy today. I have to thank Mr Draghi, the president of ECB, for doing that because the flourishing economy will benefit me, and he is willing to make it happen.

But what are they doing? They want to make an economy where everyone is happy and has money. That is great, but the problem is, is that sustainable? If it cannot continue forever, we will face a massive depression at some point.

The answer depends on two factors. One is whether or not the resources on the earth can make a tremendous amount of people rich at the same time. The other is whether or not technology can make it possible.

Also, an economic collapse or a stock market crash usually happens when inefficient people start having money that they can not properly use. That occurs when the economy becomes too rich or when debts prevail in the economy. Well, the latter is happening in the current economy right now. What is worse, the Central banks are willing to promote the economy to be that way.

In conclusion, I support Draghi's policy because otherwise, the economy would freeze, and the decision would be the ultimate conclusion he has made after a tremendous amount of careful consideration with a lot of capable brains around him.

Think again about buying Nikkei 225.

Today I faced a relatively massive stock decline in Nikkei 225 and other stock prices in Japan. I do not want to be emotional here, but this incident caused me to rethink whether or not the investment in the Japanese market is/was still the right decision.

The government and the Central Bank of Japan support the market with a large scale of money, which is true. It is, however, also confirmed that at this rate, the Japanese economy is seriously hopeless except for its robot technology and car industry. The prime minister of Japan is doing his best to keep the economy working well because I do not know how but the actual data shows that he has created an environment where it is easy for the elderly and homemakers to participate in the labour market. That would be one of the reasons to invest in the Japanese market. However, it will be inevitable that we will naturally face a vast, continuous and gradual economic decline in the long run in the future. Historically, the Japanese government has been underestimating the impact of the birthrate and population decline for too long.

After thinking about this matter in the title again, the bottom line is that it is good to invest in the Japanese market from a short-term perspective. However, it is entirely irrational to invest in this market in the long run.

Gold investment June 2019

It is apparent to every rational investor that buying gold is a good option in this economic situation. That is why the price of gold has been increasing. What is the theory behind it, and is it still an option to buy gold at the current inflated price, say, 1341 dollars per ounce? 16th June 2019

In short, the Gold price goes up when inflation occurs, and interest rates go down. And the price goes down when deflation is ongoing, and interest rates go up. The point here is that the current situation firmly tells us we should buy gold. That is based on two reasons; 1. The central banks are willing to cause inflation yet. 2. Fed stopped herself from raising the policy rate.

However, the main concern about buying gold is the flourishing stock market in the future. If the stock market became likely to boom, people would invest in the stock market instead of gold. However, it is unsure that a flourishing economy is unlikely, considering the current economic situation.

In conclusion, buying gold seems still a good option in theory, but it appears wiser if you wait for the Gold price correction before purchasing because it has increased its price almost drastically this year. Moreover, You need to wait for the opportunity when you can buy gold cheap because it does not generate any interest at all. The timing would be critical.

When would be the best timing then? Nobody knows.

About Gold and theory behind it.

Last February, I wrote about the advantage of Gold investment here in Japanese. I think the theory behind it was supported by the current increase in the gold price. Therefore, I will translate what I wrote there into English.

The gold price was around 1280 dollars per ounce when I wrote the article, and now it is around 1341 dollars per ounce.

---

"I have thought that Gold investment would be the best option in this world's current situation. One reason would be that the European central bank and The Bank of Japan are still executing inflation policy. The fact naturally contributes to the gold price positively."

"The other reason is that investors, in general, have been concerning themselves about the stagnancy of the U.S. Market. The trade war between the U.S. and China, Brexit and, it is minor though, Japanese consumption tax hike is also worrying people."

"That opaqueness of the economy leads to the raise of the Gold price. "

"On the other hand, the things that might cause a price drop of the Gold would be that European Central Bank is willing to end the monetary easing policy which leads to raising the Policy rate. That harms Gold prices. What is more, there have been developing fields such as AI, Auto-piloted vehicles, and Robots. They possibly can suck money which would be invested in Gold otherwise."

"Taken together, however, it is safe to conclude that it is a good option to put Gold in your Portfolio because the future of the world economy is still unclear, and in that situation, Gold investment is a very rational option in theory."

---

Next time, I will write about gold investment again, considering the current situation.

Trading tips for day-traders

related books more effectively than this, but the list below will make you understand the concept of being a rational trader quickly. I think things are fundamental, but at the same time, they are something a good trader follows daily.

Besides, this list is for day-trading strategy, not for long-term investors. 

• Do not be emotional
• The smaller size of a position might be good for you
• Do not get into a position without deciding loss-cut line.
• No trade is recommended right after you close a position
• Averaging down is a sin
• Work along with the trend
• Too much amount of position is not recommended
• You are making money while you wait for the opportunity
• Do not follow them
• Loss cut is your friendly Guardian
• Don't catch a falling knife
• No overtrading, which is pretty much idiotic
• No revenge trading
• No trade is allowed right after waking up in the morning
• Set the stop order all the time
• Do not take a risk just because you have plenty amount of profit you have made so far
• Have a meditation after losing your capital

The order is random, and every element in the list is equally important.

Is it clever to buy U.S.stocks then?

I wrote that buying Japanese stocks is reasonably not a lousy option the other day.

Technically speaking, though, the market is never predictable. Therefore, if your position goes wrong, you need to close the position as soon as possible. You should limit the loss and risk while letting the stocks, making an actual profit, grow by not touching them. However, in terms of techniques and tips, you should read a related book instead of being here. So let's move on to the main topic.

Is it reasonable to buy U.S. stocks such as the S&P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average? Honestly, I have no idea because I do not know much about the U.S. economy, and I just realized that it is pretty much meaningless to predict the market when I am standing on the assumption that the market is unpredictable. I am, however, pretty confident about the last article I wrote about Japanese stocks because I know the economic situation of Japan, and I am observing Japanese lives daily. What is more, I concluded that buying the Japanese index is probably a good option after considering both sides for and against buying them.

Is it sane to buy Japanese index fund like Nikkei 225?

It does not seem sane to buy Japanese stocks because the Japanese economy will have to deal with the raised consumption tax rate from the current rate of 8% to 10%. Or is it beneficial to support the Japanese economy?

Let alone the Consumption tax raise. The U.S. economy and possibly the world economy will suffer from the tariff hike set by the U.S. president, which will affect the Japanese economy as well, in a negative way, of course.

However, good news for a Nikkei buyer would be that the Bank of Japan is still willing to buy ETFs, including Nikkei 225. I looked at the data published by the Bank of Japan herself. I confirmed that She has been buying ETFs and REITs daily since 2010. To be precise, 151.8 billion Yens are spent on ETFs and REITs only this month between 1st June 2019 and 12th June 2019.

It probably is subjective, but I would say it is tremendous. I can presume that private sector and individual investors appear unwilling to buy Japanese ETFs because the price is not going up when the government is buying a lot of them.

The conclusion is that it is sane and logical to buy Japanese stocks because why do you not purchase Japanese stocks or ETFs when The Bank of Japan is willing to mitigate the risk of purchasing equities for you and supporting the market on a large scale.

One thing you should be careful about buying Japanese stocks is that, at the moment, it is hard to find the reason for buying them except for the current policy of the Central Bank of Japan. It is still safe to say the Japanese economy is stagnant, the ageing society is hopeless, and we do not have natural resources but Trees.

What will we do next? 2

If you have not read the article "What will we do next? 1" beforehand please read it before This article

Here I will write Future Economic scenarios which are possibly predictable and how to cope with those situations.

1. The economy will crash without any sign or omen.
   I think this is unlikely. Although the world economy has been unhealthy, investors worldwide seem to be very wise. They appear not to buy stocks without any positive market information. The economy seems unwell because central banks have been trying to stimulate their economy with almost total power. But thanks to calm investors, the stock market has been pretty stable and waiting for innovations to come out. If the economy crashes soon, many things in the economy are wrong, which is, I think, very unlikely.
   What is more, we just experienced "One in a hundred-year economic disaster" in 2008, which is 11 years ago, and we will not likely experience the kind of thing again.
   In this case, you need cash to sell stocks and Gold and buy Government bonds of developed countries. It is also theoretically good to have short positions on the stock market in that situation even after your notice that the crash already happened because a downtrend is sticky and long in general, but almost everyone becomes emotional. The market becomes a dangerous place to get in, so it should not be recommended.
2. We will experience the bubble and then the crash. 
   That seems most likely because the market appears to be ready for skyrocketing if there is a tremendous innovation. After all, there is theoretically plenty of money everywhere in the market waiting for the investment.
   You have to be careful of the bubble because there always is depression after a flourishing period of the economy. Strong inflation will likely happen in this situation, so buying stocks and Gold would be an excellent option. It is also ok to only buy stocks if you follow Warren Buffet's approach.
3. The world economy is fine and will continue to grow steadily.Although we have political problems which can affect the economy, like the U.S. - China trade war and Brexit, I think we can expect a flourishing economy after overcoming those issues. We have still growing sectors such as AI technology, auto-piloted vehicle and Robot technology. Therefore, I can easily conclude that the economy will succeed sooner or later.
4. Something else.

In conclusion, I think it is an excellent option to buy some of the stocks or, as a safer option, some index funds from the U.S and Germany.

*I noticed that what I usually write is logically fucked up all the time. I will work on fixing it. Sorry about that.

What will we do next? 1

We have to assume that nobody can precisely predict the future market or economy. It seems like some people actually can, but by thinking that the market is unpredictable, you will more likely to be successful as a whole because you can prepare for every situation you will face and resort to the statistical approach, which is expected to work more than believing you are omnipotent and able to predict the future. I will write an introduction today and consider possible scenarios tomorrow.

The current situation seems to be a kind of turning point that is relatively minor compared with historical moments like the stock market crash in 1929 and the financial crisis in 2008, but I think the situation today is a pretty huge turning point in the world economy.

The economy now has a fair possibility of crashing or flourishing. This sentence seems meaningless, like tomorrow is rain or no rain, but it is not like that.

First, the economies in developed countries, in general, are stagnant, and China, which partly saved the world from the economic disaster in 2008 by being economically successful enough to spread the wealth to other countries, also seems not good anymore. We are losing the resource of wealth. We will face relatively minor but influential economic depression if all hopes are lost.

However, if there is a considerable innovation, we will have a strong bull market in the coming years because we have a lot of money almost globally ready to be used to invest in something. After all, central banks again have printed their currency enormously since 2008 or 9 to get people out of the depression caused by the incident.

We will discuss the future tomorrow. Bye.

What is the investment plan next?

As theoretically expected, the Gold price has been going up recently. That proves that buying stocks and gold at the same time is still a good idea, although it is believed that Warren Buffett’s investment theory which is like buying as much as you can if you find a good investment target is seemingly the best plan because he has been making the best result in the entire universe in terms of investment. Every investment approach, however, might work differently for every person. Well, theoretically speaking again, what is the good of investing in both gold and the stock market in this economic situation is that you can expect a high profit when the economy is acceptable, and if it goes down, the slightly gold price will mitigate the loss.

Inflation is incoming because central banks in developed countries, in general, are planning to execute another monetary easing. That means there would be a positive effect on gold price because it is susceptible to inflation in general. However, one thing you should be careful about is that when the economy crashes, the gold price also goes down severely. Historically speaking, however, eventually, the gold price went up after the great depression in 2008.

It is also generally said that you should add a government bond to your portfolio to reduce the risk of buying stocks. But I doubt the effectiveness of buying bonds, especially the Japanese government. First of all, the government bond market in Japan is in a bubble because the central bank is publicly purchasing a lot of them. Second of all, inflation has adverse effects on the price of bonds. But still, it is probably not a bad option to add US Treasury to your portfolio.

In conclusion, buying Nissan stock (TYO: 7201) is the best option :D, because Nissan GTR is cool.

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