We have to assume that nobody can precisely predict the future market or economy. It seems like some people actually can, but by thinking that the market is unpredictable, you will more likely to be successful as a whole because you can prepare for every situation you will face and resort to the statistical approach, which is expected to work more than believing you are omnipotent and able to predict the future. I will write an introduction today and consider possible scenarios tomorrow.
The current situation seems to be a kind of turning point that is relatively minor compared with historical moments like the stock market crash in 1929 and the financial crisis in 2008, but I think the situation today is a pretty huge turning point in the world economy.
The economy now has a fair possibility of crashing or flourishing. This sentence seems meaningless, like tomorrow is rain or no rain, but it is not like that.
First, the economies in developed countries, in general, are stagnant, and China, which partly saved the world from the economic disaster in 2008 by being economically successful enough to spread the wealth to other countries, also seems not good anymore. We are losing the resource of wealth. We will face relatively minor but influential economic depression if all hopes are lost.
However, if there is a considerable innovation, we will have a strong bull market in the coming years because we have a lot of money almost globally ready to be used to invest in something. After all, central banks again have printed their currency enormously since 2008 or 9 to get people out of the depression caused by the incident.
We will discuss the future tomorrow. Bye.
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